Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
